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The main objective of this article is to make the projection of ageing index with relation
to infant mortality to examine the relation between dependency ratio and life
expectancy at birth. When old...
Joint probabilistic projection of female and male life expectancy
autoregressive model Bayesian hierarchical model oldest old potential support ratio t distribution United Nations World Population Prospects
2014/11/26
Background: The United Nations (UN) produces population projections for all countries every two years. These are used by international organizations, governments, the private sector and researchers fo...
An application of MCMC simulation in mortality projection for populations with limited data
Bayesian MCMC modelling mortality projection WinBUGS
2014/11/26
Objective: IIn this paper, we investigate the use of Bayesian modeling and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation, via the software WinBUGS, to project future mortality for populations with limite...
Integrating uncertainty in time series population forecasts: An illustration using a simple projection model
Bayesian Bayesian approach England model averaging population forecasting Wales
2014/11/25
Background: Population forecasts are widely used for public policy purposes. Methods to quantify the uncertainty in forecasts tend to ignore model uncertainty and to be based on a single model.Objecti...
The sequential propensity household projection model
Australia household projection household scenarios minimal household units sequential propensity model
2014/11/24
Background: The standard method of projecting living arrangements and households in Australia and New Zealand is the ‘propensity model', a type of extended headship rate model. Unfortunately it posses...
Estimates of Age-Specific Reductions in HIV Prevalence in Uganda: Bayesian Melding Estimation and Probabilistic Population Forecast with an HIV-enabled Cohort Component Projection Model
Africa AIDS/HIV Bayesian melding Cohort Component Model of Population Projection estimation forecast IMIS incidence prevalence Tanzania Uganda
2014/11/21
Background: Much of our knowledge of the epidemiology and demography of HIV epidemics in Africa is derived from models fit to sparse, non-representative data. These often average over age and other im...
More on the cohort-component model of population projection in the context of HIV/AIDS: A Leslie matrix representation and new estimates
population projection matrix representation
2014/11/20
This article presents an extension of the cohort-component model of population projection
(CCMPP) first formulated by Heuveline (2003) that is capable of modeling a population
affected by HIV....
Intergenerational transmission of women’s educational attainment in South Korea: An application of a multi-group population projection model
educational mobility Korea multi-group population projection population renewal
2011/2/24
Using a multi-group population projection model, this study examines the implications of educational mobility and differential demographic rates on changing women’s educational distribution in South K...
Long-range trends in adult mortality: Models and projection methods
long-range trends adult mortality projection methods
2009/9/15
This study has two objectives: (1) to test a new version of the logistic model for the pattern of change over time in age-specific adult mortality rates, and (2) to develop a new method for projecting...
The Probabilistic Projection of the Supply and Demand for New Entrant Engineers to the South African Labour Market 1994-2023
Probabilistic Projection New Entrant Engineers
2009/9/14
The Probabilistic Projection of the Supply and Demand for New Entrant Engineers to the South African Labour Market 1994-2023.
Intergenerational Educational Transmission within Families：An Analysis and Microsimulation Projection for Austria
Intergenerational Educational Families Austria
2009/3/16
In this contribution we study intergenerational educational transmission within families in Austria. The paper is divided into an analytical part and a synthesis of the resulting behavioural models to...
Projection of populations by level of educational attainment, age, and sex for 120 countries for 2005-2050
differential fertility differential of mortality education education goals education policies education scenarios educational attainment human capital multi-state methods projections
2010/4/6
Using demographic multi-state, cohort-component methods, we produce projections for 120 countries (covering 93% of the world population in 2005) by five-year age groups, sex, and four levels of educat...
World Urbanization Prospects an alternative to the UN model of projection compatible with the mobility transition theory
developed countries developing countries environment model poverty projections urban transition urbanization
2008/12/9
This paper proposes to critically examine the United Nations projections on urbanisation. Both the estimates of current trends based on national data and the method of projection are evaluated. The th...
Estimating time-varying sex-age-specific o/e rates of marital status transitions in family household projection or simulation
family household marriage projections simulation
2008/12/9
This article presents a procedure for estimating time-varying sex-age-specific occurrence/exposure (o/e) rates of marital status transitions to ensure that the projected life course propensities of ma...